Jagged-Townhouse
0x371e379dc5a952769f15870d0f55ab0200150f81
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
127
Open notional
$509.79
Total PnL
$-5.7K
Realised
$52.08
Win rate
31%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
1901 shares @ 14.5¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$275.61
$0.69
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
3953 shares @ 5.2¢·now 5.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$231.22
$26.48
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
648 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.97
$-10.03
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
30040 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-30.04
- NO
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
15000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
3774 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-125.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$13.40Jul 20, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$12.57Jul 20, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$122.14Jul 19, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$122.25Jul 19, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$1.00Jul 17, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$199.11Jul 17, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$96.00Jul 17, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$101.45Jul 17, 13:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$398.13Jul 17, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$9.00Jul 17, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.00Jul 17, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 17, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$11.12Jul 17, 10:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00Jul 16, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$1.00Jul 16, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$360.00Jul 16, 01:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$49.24Jul 16, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$290.29Jul 16, 00:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $100.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 12:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 08:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.