Spanish-Reliability
0x3744ed95f66be5ebe553b0f9c9a15f236c4fd422
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$360.06
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$2.42
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Trump nationalize elections?
29 shares @ 78.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.41
$-0.59
- YES
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
18 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$17.91
$5.91
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
16 shares @ 95.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.76
$0.76
- NO
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
12 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.05
$2.05
- NO
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.18
$1.18
- NO
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.99
$0.99
- NO
Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in March?
11 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$10.87
$0.87
- YES
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
10 shares @ 95.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$10.44
$0.44
- YES
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.33
$7.33
- NO
Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?
8 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$8.33
$0.56
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.