Tight-Gnu
0x3802d50885dcd7624c1f093bb74d86eb7f994693
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$12.94
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-16.50
Win rate
45%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
38 shares @ 2.9¢·now 21.6¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$8.24
$7.13
- YES
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
14 shares @ 8.6¢·now 16.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$2.26
$1.09
- YES
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
16 shares @ 6.8¢·now 3.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.61
$-0.51
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
13 shares @ 9.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.58
$-0.58
- YES
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
17 shares @ 6.6¢·now 3.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.55
$-0.57
- YES
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
16 shares @ 6.8¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.42
$-0.70
- YES
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
17 shares @ 6.7¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.23
$-0.89
- YES
Will the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
30 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.03
$-1.09
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?
21 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.01
$-1.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
910 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-9.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$21.74Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$20.08Jul 19, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.00Jul 6, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$3.72Jul 6, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$2.36Jun 25, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$2.45Jun 25, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.09Jun 25, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$5.00Jun 24, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$2.42Jun 24, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$0.09Jun 24, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$2.50Jun 24, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$2.45Jun 24, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.00Jun 24, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$2.70Jun 24, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$2.25Jun 24, 21:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.00Jun 24, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.45Jun 24, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.90Jun 24, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$0.90Jun 24, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$2.70Jun 24, 21:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $4.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 09:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.