Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.8pp
24h Vol
$2.1K
Liquidity
$7.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 21:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 5¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 4¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 5¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 3¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 5¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 10¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 6¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 6¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 23, 2025
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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