Important-Barn
0x386819f3c86b123f6c42a874331dedcd3a9e5683
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$63.35
Total PnL
$-200.0K
Realised
$-71.2K
Win rate
28%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
15 shares @ 97.4¢·now 95.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$14.76
$-0.24
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in July?
11 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$10.62
$0.62
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
11 shares @ 95.0¢·now 92.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.71
$-0.29
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$6.41
$1.41
- NO
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
6 shares @ 85.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$5.83
$0.83
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$5.49
$0.49
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.34
$0.34
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
5 shares @ 96.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$5.19
$0.19
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
2956218 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-17.3K
- YES
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2025 US Open?
258681 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 7, 2025$0.00
$-4.1K
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$9.59Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in July?$10.03Jul 1, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$15.02Jul 1, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$10.02Jul 1, 11:29 UTC
- REDEEMGermany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5$33.90Jun 20, 22:14 UTC
- REDEEMUzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5$40.82Jun 18, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 17, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGermany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5$20.25Jun 17, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5$20.35Jun 17, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5$20.31Jun 17, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$63.29Jun 15, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$50.00May 27, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$5.00May 5, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Denmark win Eurovision 2026?$5.04May 5, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?$5.03May 5, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?$5.08May 5, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?$3.52May 5, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$5.81May 5, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$7.69May 5, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$7.95May 5, 16:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
40 closed markets, 28% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $9.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 15, 17:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.