0x38d270eae3f58610f4bc00e8f78c2d5d20bc4d20
0x38d270eae3f58610f4bc00e8f78c2d5d20bc4d20
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$72.41
Total PnL
$-2.90
Realised
$2.36
Win rate
63%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
12 shares @ 52.5¢·now 52.5¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$6.54
$0.00
- YES
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
193 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.69
$1.45
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
91 shares @ 3.5¢·now 4.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.39
$1.19
- YES
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
5 shares @ 52.1¢·now 66.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.49
$0.75
- YES
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
3 shares @ 97.3¢·now 97.8¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$3.29
$0.02
- NO
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?
3 shares @ 96.2¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.06
$-0.01
- YES
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in July?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.54
$1.45
- YES
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
6 shares @ 36.3¢·now 40.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.40
$0.22
- YES
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
10 shares @ 11.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$2.18
$1.09
- YES
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 93.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.95
$0.86
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.10Jul 29, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$0.00Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?$0.10Jul 29, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 28, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 28, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Hill win the 2026 Collin County Judge election?$0.01Jul 28, 10:29 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 2 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:36 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 3 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.15Jul 28, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 27, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$1.12Jul 27, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.05Jul 27, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.05Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 27, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 27, 12:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 27, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.03Jul 27, 02:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 26, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.03Jul 26, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.06Jul 26, 04:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 21:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.