Wilted-King
0x39cab3872b624ceebcc37666f2b08f4609d17605
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$116.24
Total PnL
$-595.21
Realised
$-33.07
Win rate
30%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- NO
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?
36 shares @ 88.7¢·now 77.2¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$27.73
$-4.13
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
33 shares @ 50.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$22.73
$6.13
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
24 shares @ 30.1¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.66
$2.48
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
29 shares @ 2.4¢·now 31.4¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$9.08
$8.38
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
8 shares @ 54.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.94
$3.62
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
13 shares @ 37.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$7.75
$2.93
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.65
$1.65
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
16 shares @ 19.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.90
$2.91
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
7 shares @ 43.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.46
$1.34
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
52 shares @ 22.7¢·now 6.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.36
$-8.36
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.60Jul 25, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?$0.92Jul 25, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?$1.15Jul 25, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$0.89Jul 25, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.94Jul 25, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$2.42Jul 24, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?$2.09Jul 24, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?$3.41Jul 24, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$1.09Jul 24, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$0.30Jul 24, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$4.10Jul 24, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?$0.95Jul 24, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$2.94Jul 24, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$0.50Jul 24, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$0.49Jul 24, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?$1.00Jul 24, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$1.02Jul 24, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?$1.01Jul 24, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?$1.03Jul 24, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.12Jul 24, 12:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
40 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 07:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 21:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.