Finished-Onion
0x39de495372b74c558d7320a86ee4f5ff0baa83c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$12.39
Total PnL
$-4.2K
Realised
$-2.0K
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
12 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.39
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17?
1508 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-384.51
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
1473 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-379.72
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 17?
928 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-236.62
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 17?
885 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-226.09
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 17?
882 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-17.24
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8?
797 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.39
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 24?
780 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-206.08
- YES
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
740 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.48
- YES
Will Solana dip to $50 March 2-8?
710 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.13
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,450 on July 10?$141.19Jul 11, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,450 on July 10?$141.01Jul 10, 08:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of June?$141.14Jun 30, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of June?$141.00Jun 30, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 8 2026?$141.14Jun 12, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 8 2026?$141.01Jun 12, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$10.21Jun 12, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$12.80Jun 12, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on May 31?$13.71Jun 12, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$104.79Jun 12, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$104.58May 31, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$5.99May 31, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$110.57May 31, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$110.15May 30, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?$109.88May 30, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?$110.00May 30, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on May 31?$13.70May 30, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$123.98May 30, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$123.87May 29, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$10.20May 29, 08:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
32/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $97.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 05:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 04:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.