Scratchy-Bother
0x39df94321f18314520005493c576d6603d0d64a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$331.89
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2619 shares @ 19.1¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$525.12
$25.12
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?
400 shares @ 80.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$373.69
$53.74
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2431 shares @ 20.6¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$283.22
$-216.78
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?
118 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.94
$2.94
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1131 shares @ 9.7¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$96.71
$-13.29
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?
59 shares @ 85.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.75
$3.75
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$15.81
$5.81
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.30
$1.30
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
169 shares @ 5.9¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.22
$-1.78
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
10811 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-120.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?$468.70Jul 20, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?$123.19Jul 20, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$125.00Jul 20, 18:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $295.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.