Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$54.00
Liquidity
$2.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5496.8h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: +11.5pp at 05:00 (to 27¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 18:00 · +7.0pp → 23¢
- 13:00 · +8.5pp → 24¢
- 08:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 06:00 · +11.5pp → 27¢
- 05:00 · +11.5pp → 27¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 16¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 24¢
- May 11, 17:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 22¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 11¢+2.5
Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $13.18
- 83¢+2.0
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $14.12
- 49¢+0.5
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $29.74
- 32¢+5.0
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $24.03
- 19¢-2.0
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.22
- 37¢+1.0
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.00
- 38¢-13.5
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $272.97
- 54¢+2.0
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $2.50
- 0¢-0.1
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?
Geopolitics · Vol $4.4M
- 3¢-31.1
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Geopolitics · Vol $3.8M
- 2¢-33.1
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.6M
- 9¢-3.5
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.5M
- 0¢-0.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.5M
- 3¢-18.5
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
airspaceReason
Airspace incursion / military aviation markets are Geopolitics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?"?
As of Fri, 15 May 2026 23:14:10 GMT, YES is priced at 16% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$54.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.