Dense-Change
0x3a8901c9a7bd5010103cf6eb36cc6195690600df
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$348.72
Total PnL
$0.32
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
330 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$329.67
$29.67
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
155 shares @ 6.5¢·now 7.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.44
$1.44
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
222 shares @ 4.5¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.11
$-4.89
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
147 shares @ 6.8¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.50
$-7.50
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?
38 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
15 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
10 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.40
- YES
Will Iran strike Syria in March?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
8 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?$301.94Apr 28, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$1.30Mar 23, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$1.30Mar 23, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$7.28Mar 23, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?$1.87Mar 23, 17:00 UTC
- REDEEMMore EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?$0.00Mar 23, 16:56 UTC
- REDEEMMore EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?$7.14Mar 23, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$3.40Mar 15, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?$3.00Mar 14, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?$2.00Mar 14, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?$1.00Mar 14, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMore EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?$1.00Mar 14, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$1.00Mar 14, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 14, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$2.00Mar 14, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$1.00Mar 14, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Syria in March?$1.00Mar 14, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$5.00Mar 14, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$10.00Mar 14, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$10.00Mar 14, 20:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $75.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 10, 01:24 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 19:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.