Illiterate-Cadet
0x3adee3ca9c768e66803fed062ccb5b0a3a03f2cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$225.77
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?
4847 shares @ 22.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-37.50
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-60.33
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
500 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-16.25
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?
43 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?
38 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?
22 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?
13 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$1.80Jun 15, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$0.01Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$245.74Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$38.46Jun 12, 19:50 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$2.59Jun 12, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$44.82Jun 12, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$1.46Jun 12, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$1.45Jun 12, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?$0.04Jun 12, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$0.02Jun 10, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$0.22Jun 10, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$0.48Jun 10, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.05Jun 5, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$1.47Jun 5, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?$2.08Jun 4, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$1.80Jun 4, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$6.15Jun 3, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$92.30Jun 3, 19:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$99.33Apr 13, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$55.30Feb 11, 16:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $29.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 7, 20:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 10:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.