Near-Rain
0x3b06ebdf208baeb617f0546720b09bb79cfd3489
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$362.84
Total PnL
$-303.91
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
250 shares @ 71.9¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$230.52
$50.46
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
99 shares @ 74.5¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$70.59
$-2.96
- NO
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 66.4¢·now 62.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$61.72
$-4.38
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
10300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.30
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?
371 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-30.01
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
219 shares @ 71.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-156.72
- NO
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
212 shares @ 70.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$14.65Jul 29, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$14.65Jul 29, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$58.90Jul 29, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$7.99Jul 28, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 27?$50.90Jul 27, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 27?$35.34Jul 24, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$11.25Jul 24, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$6.10Jul 22, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$4.88Jul 22, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$3.72Jul 22, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$9.69Jul 22, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$6.66Jul 22, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$60.00Jul 22, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$60.00Jul 20, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$175.14Jul 20, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$10.78Jul 15, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$10.00Jul 15, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$1.43Jul 14, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?$13.75Jul 14, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?$35.96Jul 14, 19:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $28.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 14:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.