Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
Probability
64¢
1h
+21.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$1.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
15% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
15% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 39.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Official government information
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 30, 19:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2508.3h
- 07:41SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 64¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ukraineReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ukraine" — matched the Geopolitics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?"?
As of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:41:24 GMT, YES is priced at 64% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +21.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 30, 2026 (2026-09-30T19:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 39.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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