Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

121

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-915.78

Realised

$-402.85

Win rate

119 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 121

UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
106 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-29.60
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
93 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-24.09
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
67 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-19.51
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
51 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-23.38
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
36 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-19.65
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
34 shares @ 33.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-11.10
DOWN
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
31 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-20.52
UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
30 shares @ 69.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-20.59
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
24 shares @ 57.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026
$0.00
$-13.78
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5PM ET
22 shares @ 46.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$0.00Jul 30, 15:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$5.05Jul 30, 15:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 15:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10AM ET$5.14Jul 30, 14:52 UTC
TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?$0.32Jul 30, 14:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Jul 30, 14:49 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Jul 30, 14:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Jul 30, 14:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Jul 30, 14:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$5.35Jul 30, 14:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10AM ET$5.01Jul 30, 14:43 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?$1.03Jun 1, 08:34 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?$0.66Jun 1, 08:32 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?$1.01Jun 1, 08:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?$1.01May 17, 09:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?$1.06May 17, 09:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5PM ET$5.19May 16, 21:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5PM ET$5.19May 16, 21:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$5.43May 16, 18:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$5.03May 16, 18:37 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 119 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

119 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry88 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $2.40
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 4, 12:01 UTC
Last active: Jul 30, 15:25 UTC
Win rate sample: 119 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:48:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data