Frivolous-Eyeliner
0x3b25a5ccaede2a6497420caa308eaeaddfd69e19
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$4.42
Total PnL
$-26.58
Realised
$1.76
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will South African inflation be between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2026?
18 shares @ 5.7¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$1.45
$0.45
- YES
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$1.41
$0.41
- YES
Will South African inflation be between 3.5% and 3.8% in 2026?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.9¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$0.90
$-0.10
- YES
Will South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?
8 shares @ 12.3¢·now 8.2¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$0.66
$-0.34
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
15 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 14?
10 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?
10 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?
9 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?$5.09Jul 23, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South African inflation be between 3.5% and 3.8% in 2026?$1.04Jul 23, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.15Jul 20, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.89Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South African inflation be between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2026?$1.05Jul 16, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.03Jul 16, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?$1.04Jul 14, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 14?$0.51Jul 14, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 14?$1.03Jul 14, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 14?$1.03Jul 13, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 13, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$1.03Jul 13, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?$1.19Jul 13, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.23Jul 13, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.37Jul 13, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.49Jul 13, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.49Jul 13, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?$1.04Jul 9, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.52Jul 9, 18:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 20:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 13:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.