Idolized-Fresco
0x3b4484b6c8cbfdaa383ba337ab3f0d71055e264e
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
1302 shares @ 34.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$905.09
$462.25
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
917 shares @ 12.2¢·now 8.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$78.81
$-33.48
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
298 shares @ 14.3¢·now 5.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.41
$-25.26
- YES
Ramp IPO before 2027?
134 shares @ 15.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.39
$-8.71
- YES
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
292 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.34
$-29.78
- YES
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
270 shares @ 88.5¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.62
$-237.71
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
45 shares @ 3.7¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.60
$-1.03
- YES
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
8192 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.58
- YES
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
6725 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-195.08
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
5186 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-32.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15?$11.90Jul 16, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15?$7.02Jul 15, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in July?$12.64Jul 13, 01:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 11?$50.00Jul 12, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 11?$47.59Jul 11, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump praise Allah again by July 31?$1.5KJul 11, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Allah again by July 31?$1.3KJul 11, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in July?$6.57Jul 10, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?$42.67Jul 10, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$2.3KJul 10, 17:52 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.91Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$454.53Jul 9, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$33.26Jul 9, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 8?$29.01Jul 9, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner drop out by July 8?$10.73Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$199.30Jul 8, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$5.00Jul 8, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$3.08Jul 8, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$3.08Jul 8, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.23Jul 8, 13:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $124.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 22:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 17:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.