Frugal-Inscription
0x3b5dacd3e7c2453afb069f9c57abb8ac60bcf2c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$688.35
Total PnL
$-7.1K
Realised
$-62.21
Win rate
0%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
3780 shares @ 27.8¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$661.56
$-388.43
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
714 shares @ 7.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.79
$-23.21
- YES
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
57067 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-199.96
- YES
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
32667 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-161.93
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
22768 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.2K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
22406 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-839.96
- YES
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
10758 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-104.98
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?
2968 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2025$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?
2440 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
1772 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYTargu Mures: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu$4.14Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
32 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $57.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 10:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.