Juvenile-Hypothesis
0x3bef3a6bc4b1d895ed24ca37e88f06367a8ef04e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$245.94
Total PnL
$216.95
Realised
$517.52
Win rate
72%
151 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
434 shares @ 5.4¢·now 20.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$90.61
$67.32
- YES
Will LNG Esports win the LPL 2026 season?
2332 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.16
$8.04
- YES
Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?
362 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.69
$-0.01
- YES
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?
199 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.96
$-0.00
- YES
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
228 shares @ 4.4¢·now 3.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$7.51
$-2.45
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
182 shares @ 5.4¢·now 3.6¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$6.64
$-3.24
- YES
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1331 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.99
$-3.33
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.62
$0.62
- YES
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
338 shares @ 2.9¢·now 1.7¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.58
$-4.38
- YES
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?
1292 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.17
$-2.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?$1.92Jun 13, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A.C. Toulme be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.12Jun 13, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A.C. Toulme be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.25Jun 13, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A.C. Toulme be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.22Jun 13, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A.C. Toulme be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.08Jun 13, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A.C. Toulme be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.38Jun 13, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A.C. Toulme be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.08Jun 13, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cameron Kasky be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?$0.60Jun 13, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cameron Kasky be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?$0.15Jun 13, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?$0.09Jun 12, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?$0.56Jun 12, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amie Baca-Oehlert be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?$0.21Jun 12, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amie Baca-Oehlert be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?$0.12Jun 12, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.86Jun 12, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?$0.60Jun 12, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026?$0.40Jun 12, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$0.98Jun 12, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?$0.62Jun 12, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?$2.36Jun 12, 11:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 14:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 04:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 151 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.