Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?
Probability
67¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+26.0pp
24h Vol
$8.00
Liquidity
$236.43
Probability (last 7 days)
+42.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 26pp over 24h
Now 67¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 15:40SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.5pp
to 67¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.0pp
to 67¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.5pp
to 68¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.0pp
to 68¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 37¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 32¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 32¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 38¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 44¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 40¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 44¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 34¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 32¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 16¢+2.0pp
Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 16¢0.0pp
Will Ethena reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 28¢0.0pp
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-0.9pp
Will Ethena reach $1.20 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 15¢+0.5pp
Will Ethena reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 16¢-1.5pp
Will Ethena reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+18.4pp
Will Ethena dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+43.0pp
Will Ethena dip to $0.12 by December 31, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 83¢+24.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.6M
- 2¢-0.4pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 37¢-21.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.3M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-35.4pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethena (ENA/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 15:45 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ENA/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ENA_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ENA/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).