Loading shell…
OtherExpires Jan 1, 2026

Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?

Probability

67¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+26.0pp

24h Vol

$8.00

Liquidity

$236.43

Probability (last 7 days)

+42.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:40
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 26pp over 24h

    Now 67¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 15:40Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 42.5pp

    to 67¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 42.0pp

    to 67¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 43.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 43.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 14.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethena (ENA/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 15:45 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ENA/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ENA_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ENA/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jan 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).