Trustworthy-Faculty
0x3bf2b9b5801d3171314aa9a3d685de9fff4370a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-91.22
Win rate
39%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
2100 shares @ 39.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$692.95
$-125.38
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
553 shares @ 87.1¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$546.40
$64.44
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
500 shares @ 78.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$442.50
$52.70
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
300 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$299.85
$5.85
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
300 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$271.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
750 shares @ 19.3¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$258.88
$114.28
- NO
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
268 shares @ 85.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$232.06
$2.14
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
250 shares @ 13.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.75
$111.25
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
100 shares @ 71.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$82.50
$11.50
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
100 shares @ 58.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$64.50
$6.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$40.95Aug 17, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$50.05Aug 17, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$182.00Aug 17, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?$68.00Aug 17, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$67.97Aug 16, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$5.73Aug 14, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$101.56Aug 14, 14:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$1.4KAug 14, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$50.00Aug 14, 09:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$49.50Aug 14, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$6.14Aug 13, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?$21.00Aug 12, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no listed leader be out before 2027?$28.00Aug 12, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?$0.75Aug 12, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?$1.02Aug 12, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?$0.79Aug 12, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?$0.94Aug 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?$0.94Aug 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$6.14Aug 11, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$84.00Aug 10, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $40.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 20:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 14:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.