Trustworthy-Faculty
0x3bf2b9b5801d3171314aa9a3d685de9fff4370a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$4.1K
Total PnL
$-350.88
Realised
$-243.58
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
1663 shares @ 78.2¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$317.07
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
638 shares @ 86.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$636.07
$84.90
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
550 shares @ 73.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$544.49
$142.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
514 shares @ 68.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$475.41
$121.92
- YES
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
250 shares @ 7.2¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$242.18
$224.25
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
250 shares @ 64.2¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$186.25
$25.75
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 51.5¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
90 shares @ 88.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$89.69
$10.16
- YES
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
218 shares @ 17.6¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.06
$36.65
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
250 shares @ 13.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.75
$11.25
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$18.70Jul 2, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.70Jul 2, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.50Jul 2, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.50Jul 2, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.50Jul 2, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.60Jul 2, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.20Jul 2, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$72.00Jul 2, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$36.50Jul 2, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 2, 07:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$281.03Jul 1, 13:27 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 09:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?$1.69Jun 30, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$0.41Jun 30, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$0.15Jun 30, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$4.35Jun 30, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$0.44Jun 30, 17:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $51.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 00:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.