0x3d17e6b170b6bc74c9e9c76dbbcae22b46dbaf12
0x3d17e6b170b6bc74c9e9c76dbbcae22b46dbaf12
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$173.89
Total PnL
$-1.71
Realised
$-0.75
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
54 shares @ 69.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$46.41
$9.18
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
53 shares @ 70.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$38.30
$1.06
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
33 shares @ 57.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.07
$2.45
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
16 shares @ 78.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$14.56
$2.15
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
45 shares @ 33.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$13.41
$-1.59
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
13 shares @ 93.5¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.65
$0.24
- IMPERIAL
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Imperial - Map 4 Winner
8 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$8.27
$3.31
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
7 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.53
$0.32
- YES
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
10 shares @ 47.2¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.62
$0.66
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
13 shares @ 36.9¢·now 37.6¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$5.05
$0.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$5.09Jul 20, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$6.21Jul 20, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Imperial - Map 4 Winner$5.06Jul 20, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$12.41Jul 20, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$11.66Jul 19, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$4.23Jul 19, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$16.89Jul 18, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$18.62Jul 18, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$18.62Jul 18, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$12.41Jul 18, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$10.47Jul 18, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$5.09Jul 17, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$15.00Jul 17, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.04Jul 17, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$4.58Jul 17, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.03Jul 17, 05:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Speech to the Nation?$5.39Jul 17, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?$6.75Jul 17, 03:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Venezuela" during Speech to the Nation?$6.99Jul 17, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Transgender" during Speech to the Nation?$27.56Jul 17, 03:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $10.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 10:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 08:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.