Extraneous-Apprehension
0x3d6efa2f9d3728745b87fff99df43c01a37244c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$22.45
Total PnL
$-71.58
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
266 shares @ 15.7¢·now 6.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$16.63
$-25.13
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
353 shares @ 14.8¢·now 1.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.82
$-46.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?$4.84Apr 11, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?$9.49Apr 11, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?$11.22Mar 26, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?$4.00Mar 26, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?$10.00Mar 26, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?$8.53Mar 25, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?$2.28Mar 24, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?$3.45Mar 24, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?$1.00Mar 24, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?$15.00Mar 24, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?$2.46Mar 24, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?$2.47Mar 23, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?$60.40Mar 22, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?$38.92Mar 18, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027?$38.93Mar 18, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?$15.82Mar 18, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?$14.83Mar 18, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?$2.02Mar 18, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?$3.00Mar 18, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?$19.42Mar 18, 02:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $13.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 04:55 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 16:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.