Serpentine-Merchant
0x3d70670e169d7630a0a324dc01d030c650a4e9b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$142.54
Total PnL
$-783.93
Realised
$2.30
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
50 shares @ 59.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$28.75
$-0.75
- NO
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.43
$0.43
- NO
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.37
$0.17
- NO
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
20 shares @ 94.5¢·now 92.6¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$18.52
$-0.38
- NO
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.88
$0.32
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$13.30
$-1.50
- NO
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.96
$0.01
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 76.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.95
$0.35
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
10 shares @ 81.9¢·now 53.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$5.38
$-2.81
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10 shares @ 13.5¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.23
$-0.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$22.30Jul 29, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$7.20Jul 29, 19:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$5.00Jul 29, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$3.15Jul 29, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYKF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Team to Advance AND Qairat FK vs. AS Omónoia Leukosías: Team to Advance AND FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: Team to Advance$2.00Jul 29, 13:58 UTC
- REDEEMToronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx AND Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics AND Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm$4.05Jul 29, 04:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx AND Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics AND Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm$2.00Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$0.25Jul 27, 22:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$0.60Jul 27, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?$148.96Jul 27, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?$99.60Jul 27, 20:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$4.30Jul 26, 12:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$2.66Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) AND UFC Fight Night: Cody Gibson vs. Abdul Hussein (Bantamweight, Prelims) AND UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)$5.21Jul 25, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$4.50Jul 25, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$10.00Jul 25, 18:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $26.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 15:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.