OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 31, 2026

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Probability

37¢

-0.8pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$1.0K

Liquidity

$44.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.1pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:34

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4521h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 4521.4h
LOW
14:34Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4521h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
14:00Price
Probability up 6.3pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 5.7pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability up 5.7pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability up 7.5pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 4.7pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 3.2pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 5.9pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 6.5pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 6.3pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability up 8.4pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 12.6pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 12.6pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 10.5pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 9.2pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.9pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.3pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.6pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 11.8pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.5pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.5pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.3pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 3.4pp
to 34¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.2pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventBallon d'Or Winner 2026

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Oct 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’OrAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket