0x3db45d1ca0245ad8d4c26f1027c4fb883442962c
0x3db45d1ca0245ad8d4c26f1027c4fb883442962c
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-264.69
Win rate
25%
77 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
12500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 2?
250 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-199.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 2?
156 shares @ 63.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-99.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?
120 shares @ 83.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-99.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
33 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.33
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
31 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.48
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
31 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.79
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
31 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.79
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
29 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.16
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
29 shares @ 35.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.31
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 30?$103.52Jul 30, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 30?$14.57Jul 30, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 30?$15.54Jul 30, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 30?$69.37Jul 30, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 9?$20.32Jul 9, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 9?$12.84Jul 9, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 9?$1.88Jul 9, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?$182.17Jul 4, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?$100.10Jul 4, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 4?$111.54Jul 4, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?$59.56Jul 4, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 4?$27.24Jul 4, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 4?$28.14Jul 4, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 4?$34.48Jul 4, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 4?$10.69Jul 4, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?$37.56Jul 4, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?$6.88Jul 4, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?$56.36Jul 4, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 4?$101.89Jul 4, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 4?$87.19Jul 4, 03:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 77 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
77 closed markets, 25% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $64.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 03:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 07:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 77 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.