Arid-Province
0x3de69fd6347a62a618656371e30a17b0c490e560
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-9.7K
Realised
$-2.5K
Win rate
17%
96 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?
934 shares @ 50.7¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$667.68
$194.46
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?
644 shares @ 44.8¢·now 51.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$329.59
$40.98
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
532 shares @ 50.3¢·now 50.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$266.62
$-0.71
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
402 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$202.96
$-2.01
- YES
Will Rodri join Paris Saint-Germain?
907 shares @ 0.3¢·now 5.1¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$45.80
$42.69
- YES
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
577 shares @ 8.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.76
$-18.24
- YES
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
512 shares @ 2.2¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$19.20
$7.99
- YES
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1071 shares @ 6.6¢·now 1.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$14.46
$-56.02
- YES
Will Rodri join Barcelona?
487 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.8¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$8.77
$2.09
- YES
Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain?
449 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$4.04
$0.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$0.92Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$0.96Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$1.04Jul 28, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$1.04Jul 28, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$1.02Jul 28, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$3.50Jul 28, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on July 29?$1.51Jul 28, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2PM ET$2.70Jul 28, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 29?$1.04Jul 28, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 28, 2PM ET$1.10Jul 28, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 29?$1.04Jul 28, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2PM ET$1.06Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 2PM ET$1.05Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$1.97Jul 28, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$1.04Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2PM ET$3.50Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$1.33Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$21.33Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET$4.35Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 1PM ET$36.01Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 96 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
96 closed markets, 17% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 16:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 96 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.