Organic-Modeling
0x3e2322ddba75024fd268cff486b2009615fd8579
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$8.0K
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$142.30
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
1200 shares @ 79.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$954.00
$6.00
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
1026 shares @ 58.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$851.43
$256.45
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
1503 shares @ 56.1¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$803.92
$-39.54
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
763 shares @ 74.4¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$675.25
$107.38
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
739 shares @ 71.1¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$602.45
$76.47
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
629 shares @ 73.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$562.72
$99.52
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
1226 shares @ 41.1¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$520.97
$16.54
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
500 shares @ 72.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$392.49
$32.50
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
480 shares @ 67.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$386.40
$62.40
- YES
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
510 shares @ 58.9¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$369.43
$69.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$324.00Jul 13, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$147.59Jul 10, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$14.00Jul 10, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$2.90Jul 10, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$4.00Jul 10, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$155.53Jul 10, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$77.70Jul 7, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$16.73Jul 7, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$277.82Jul 7, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$333.75Jul 7, 17:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.18Jul 7, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$106.00Jul 7, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$200.02Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$96.90Jul 6, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$9.00Jul 6, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$4.17Jul 6, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$171.18Jul 6, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$65.02Jul 6, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$1.89Jul 6, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$5.07Jul 6, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $89.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 12:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 20:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.