0x3e33ae064b8ab73693f26ec7aa4c7f190dbb6e0c
0x3e33ae064b8ab73693f26ec7aa4c7f190dbb6e0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$94.02
Total PnL
$-139.85
Realised
$-2.08
Win rate
6%
49 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?
40 shares @ 46.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$38.80
$20.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?
50 shares @ 37.1¢·now 33.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$16.75
$-1.80
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
8 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.92
$0.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 15?
10 shares @ 49.5¢·now 60.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$6.00
$1.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 15?
15 shares @ 39.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.95
$-0.90
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5 shares @ 64.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.17
$-0.03
- YES
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.95
$0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.73
$1.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 15?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.97
$-0.01
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
5 shares @ 30.7¢·now 31.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.59
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$1.88Aug 14, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.18Aug 14, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$1.93Aug 14, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.44Aug 14, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 15?$2.59Aug 14, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.23Aug 14, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 15?$2.54Aug 14, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.23Aug 14, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 15?$2.00Aug 14, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$1.93Aug 14, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.18Aug 14, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.59Aug 14, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$1.93Aug 14, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 17?$0.24Aug 14, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 17?$0.80Aug 14, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 16?$1.00Aug 14, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.64Aug 14, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$1.98Aug 14, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$2.59Aug 14, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 16?$1.98Aug 14, 14:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 49 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
49 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 21:01 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 20:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 49 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.