0x3e4c94fb299376560be29de7f50e39c70634877f
0x3e4c94fb299376560be29de7f50e39c70634877f
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
127
Open notional
$77.88
Total PnL
$-916.35
Realised
$-265.08
Win rate
0%
82 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- YES
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
110 shares @ 13.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.60
$-2.40
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
60 shares @ 8.3¢·now 18.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.93
$5.93
- YES
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1083 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.29
$-0.71
- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
46 shares @ 32.6¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.12
$-7.88
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
468 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.79
$0.79
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
116 shares @ 4.3¢·now 5.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.10
$1.10
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
80 shares @ 25.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
106 shares @ 4.7¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.37
$0.37
- YES
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
611 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.36
$-2.64
- YES
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.81
$0.81
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 82 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
82 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 82 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.