Dense-Nickel
0x3e80ec14acccd520d1ef4e710acab1350a409ead
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$67.95
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 6 of the World Chess Championship?
3941 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2024$0.00
$-524.99
- YES
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 5 of the World Chess Championship?
3063 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2024$0.00
$-605.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?
2500 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?
2456 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-172.36
- YES
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?
2405 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2024$0.00
$-156.75
- YES
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?
2015 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2024$0.00
$-95.47
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?
1830 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-162.80
- YES
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?
1429 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2024$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?
1419 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-272.03
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?
1015 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?$4.88Mar 15, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$207.38Mar 15, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$112.77Mar 15, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$117.28Mar 15, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?$38.97Mar 15, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?$58.38Mar 15, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$112.09Mar 15, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$235.08Mar 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$281.23Mar 15, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$180.00Mar 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$5.35Mar 15, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$91.48Mar 15, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$62.75Mar 15, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$1.2KMar 15, 07:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$780.00Mar 15, 03:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$43.30Mar 15, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$589.30Mar 15, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$600.17Mar 15, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$33.63Mar 14, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$100.56Mar 14, 14:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $139.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 00:42 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 15, 23:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.