Hateful-Chestnut
0x3e9cb09c257f2f81962164717567f2bd091ab879
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$542.97
Total PnL
$-525.38
Realised
$-4.10
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
440 shares @ 67.6¢·now 56.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$246.16
$-50.83
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
420 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$209.93
$-4.07
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
373 shares @ 11.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.68
$-9.32
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
66 shares @ 38.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.04
$-2.96
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
18 shares @ 27.2¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.69
$0.69
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.12
$0.12
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
40 shares @ 16.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$5.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 12.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.84
$-1.27
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
30 shares @ 13.5¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.67
$-0.33
- YES
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.32
$-0.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$116.00Jul 28, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$108.18Jul 27, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$7.81Jul 27, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$107.00Jul 27, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$50.00Jul 27, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 27?$4.32Jul 27, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 27?$3.20Jul 27, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 27, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$156.84Jul 27, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$130.00Jul 26, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$129.66Jul 26, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$9.00Jul 25, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$25.00Jul 24, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$34.65Jul 24, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$9.00Jul 24, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 24?$5.19Jul 24, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$30.00Jul 24, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$50.00Jul 23, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$80.00Jul 23, 23:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$174.26Jul 23, 23:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $36.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 11:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 06:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.