Rosy-Ghost
0x3eb89a6604bc4da72ac2f680200c3e421bf77b06
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$81.79
Total PnL
$-13.43
Realised
$0.58
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
AI bubble burst in 2026?
200 shares @ 15.4¢·now 27.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.79
$25.00
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
3000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$16.50
$-37.50
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
4 shares @ 25.7¢·now 93.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.62
$2.62
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.44
$2.44
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.89
$-1.11
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
4 shares @ 27.9¢·now 19.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.71
$-0.29
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.10
$-4.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?$2.32Jul 29, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?$1.02Jul 29, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.03Jul 29, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?$1.01Jul 29, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 23?$0.00Jul 29, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?$0.00Jul 29, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 22?$1.33Jul 22, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 23?$1.25Jul 22, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?$2.07Jul 22, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$2.08Jul 22, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$0.84Jul 22, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.03Jul 22, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.03Jul 22, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 22?$1.01Jul 22, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$1.04Jul 22, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$1.03Jul 22, 10:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$0.00Jul 21, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?$0.00Jul 21, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$0.00Jul 21, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?$0.00Jul 21, 16:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 09:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.