Coarse-Mobster
0x3f31a4045f20c0c25a8a7ea887c3caf9381a169d
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$114.50
Total PnL
$-707.44
Realised
$-319.93
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 12?
102 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$102.20
$0.20
- NO
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
12 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.29
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2?
810 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.05
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
690 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-178.41
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?
660 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 7?
534 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-136.06
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4?
525 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- CAPITALS
Capitals vs. Blues
14 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-7.30
- EDWARD WINTER
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter
14 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-7.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 12?$102.01Aug 11, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Colombia win on 2026-07-03?$11.59Aug 11, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia win on 2026-07-03?$8.07Jul 3, 10:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $50 in June?$107.11Jul 3, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $50 in June?$107.01Jun 30, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$107.40Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$107.19May 31, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYCenturion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter$7.22May 31, 04:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$114.44May 31, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$114.23May 30, 09:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?$113.85May 30, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?$114.02May 30, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYKosice: Martin Krumich vs Mathys Erhard$2.76May 30, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$12.30May 30, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$11.76May 30, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28?$14.31May 30, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 25 2026?$103.36May 30, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 25 2026?$103.17May 29, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$11.74May 29, 04:45 UTC
- REDEEMThunder vs. Spurs$12.33May 29, 04:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $84.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 11:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 06:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.