Arid-Crowd
0x3f3558c54bdf6446b6eb0c266ebd3772cc7fa3bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$58.95
Total PnL
$-1.15
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.86
$1.26
- YES
Will Intel say "Growth" 5+ times during earnings call?
5 shares @ 70.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$4.60
$1.10
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.38
$1.72
- NO
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.25
$0.35
- NO
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.22
$0.63
- NO
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $161 Week of July 20 2026?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.83
$2.52
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5 shares @ 73.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.58
$-0.07
- NO
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 83.1¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.55
$0.55
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
5 shares @ 69.9¢·now 68.7¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$3.44
$-0.06
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
5 shares @ 70.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$3.25
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$2.35Jul 22, 17:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of July 20 2026?$0.00Jul 22, 11:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 21?$5.00Jul 22, 06:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?$4.99Jul 21, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?$0.00Jul 20, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toy Story 5" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?$0.00Jul 20, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the AQI at the World Cup final be 90 or higher?$0.00Jul 20, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?$0.00Jul 20, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$0.00Jul 20, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?$3.90Jul 20, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) finish week of July 20 above $350?$3.98Jul 20, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$3.55Jul 20, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $161 Week of July 20 2026?$1.34Jul 20, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 21?$2.01Jul 20, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.70Jul 20, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.35Jul 20, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$1.95Jul 20, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$2.20Jul 20, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of July 20 2026?$1.54Jul 20, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?$3.64Jul 20, 00:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 17:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.