Boiling-Institute
0x3f4bab51c0894611045d5faa7cc9605b3b45f574
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$223.69
Realised
$168.21
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1938 shares @ 83.2¢·now 87.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.7K
$87.91
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2058 shares @ 75.7¢·now 79.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.6K
$76.53
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2067 shares @ 24.2¢·now 20.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$425.83
$-74.81
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
400 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$399.00
$1.08
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1938 shares @ 17.3¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$237.34
$-97.52
- YES
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?
156 shares @ 15.5¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$73.37
$49.19
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
70 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$69.97
$2.24
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
230 shares @ 22.6¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$51.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
128 shares @ 9.7¢·now 40.3¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$51.71
$39.29
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
50 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$49.83
$0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$2.68Jul 4, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$8.91Jul 4, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$2.58Jul 4, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$1.40Jul 4, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$48.79Jul 4, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31?$10.61Jul 4, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$1.01Jul 4, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$49.85Jul 4, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$13.74Jul 4, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?$4.81Jul 4, 02:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.36Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$49.70Jul 3, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$4.69Jul 3, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$29.91Jul 3, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$10.32Jul 3, 09:51 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?$9.27Jul 3, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?$4.82Jul 3, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$8.87Jul 3, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?$12.99Jul 3, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$3.82Jul 3, 02:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $21.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 04:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.