Wallet digest

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$11.95

Total PnL

$-370.78

Realised

$-57.61

Win rate

15%

27 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 92

NO
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
3 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$3.00
$0.07
NO
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
3 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$3.00
$0.15
NO
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
3 shares @ 95.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$3.00
$0.13
NO
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
2 shares @ 84.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$2.00
$0.30
YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
36 shares @ 2.7¢·now 2.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$0.95
$-0.02
NO
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-07?
1082 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-2.16
YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
939 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-6.69
YES
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?
673 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026
$0.00
$-0.67
YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 10?
583 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.49
YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 10?
537 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-3.99

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$0.00May 4, 13:27 UTC
REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$0.00May 4, 13:27 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$0.00May 4, 13:27 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

15% win rate over 27 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

review

27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence90 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry53 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 4, 00:48 UTC
Last active: May 4, 13:28 UTC
Win rate sample: 27 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:41:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data