Incompatible-Pseudoscience
0x404e7ba5cd81e003552b6c4e8042b5f04547a0d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$503.42
Total PnL
$-427.69
Realised
$-6.50
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
135 shares @ 22.6¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.77
$32.28
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
120 shares @ 45.8¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$58.20
$3.30
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
65 shares @ 71.7¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.77
$1.18
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
50 shares @ 83.2¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$40.25
$-1.35
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
116 shares @ 30.1¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$34.22
$-0.76
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
50 shares @ 63.6¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$32.06
$0.45
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
40 shares @ 78.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$32.00
$0.80
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
40 shares @ 68.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$29.80
$2.60
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
200 shares @ 11.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.00
$7.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
70 shares @ 35.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$24.85
$0.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$5.95Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$21.25Jul 28, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$14.62Jul 28, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$5.89Jul 28, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$2.33Jul 28, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$13.51Jul 27, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$5.38Jul 27, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$5.60Jul 27, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$11.70Jul 26, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$14.20Jul 24, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$31.20Jul 24, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$0.29Jul 22, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?$12.60Jul 22, 09:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$15.98Jul 21, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$0.02Jul 21, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$4.79Jul 21, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$14.50Jul 21, 21:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$7.60Jul 21, 06:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $17.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 13:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.