Repentant-Sofa
0x4058ebfdac713a7337319b8862b0c89039d98b1c
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
170
Open notional
$59.79
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$147.43
Win rate
53%
64 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 170- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?
20 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$20.00
$6.40
- NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?
20 shares @ 60.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$20.00
$7.86
- YES
Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026?
10 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.66
$3.28
- NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?
9 shares @ 20.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$8.75
$6.98
- NO
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 13.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$1.38
$1.20
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
1000 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-720.00
- YES
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
225 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
- YES
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
150 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-117.01
- NO
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$26.91Mar 1, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$300.46Mar 1, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$12.86Mar 1, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$371.56Mar 1, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$8.22Mar 1, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$34.60Feb 20, 09:35 UTC
- REWARD$2.62Feb 20, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$3.39Feb 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?$7.61Feb 19, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?$20.10Feb 19, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?$5.78Feb 19, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$48.69Feb 19, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$59.51Feb 19, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$192.00Feb 19, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$60.00Feb 19, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Kash" or "Patel" during the State of the Union address?$6.60Feb 19, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$92.00Feb 19, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$54.00Feb 19, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$104.00Feb 19, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?$29.25Feb 19, 12:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 64 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
64 closed markets, 53% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $69.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 8, 00:20 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 19:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 64 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.