Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Probability
22¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$600.58
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3804h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $3.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3803.8h
- 16:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3804h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 21¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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