0x4099d9ed151d8d5cca3ad00434c32b58cab79bb9
0x4099d9ed151d8d5cca3ad00434c32b58cab79bb9
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$37.61
Total PnL
$-45.82
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
15 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$14.84
$1.34
- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$8.64
$0.54
- NO
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.15
$0.72
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.16
$0.16
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
2 shares @ 84.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.37
$0.37
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
17 shares @ 35.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.80
$-4.20
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.65
$-1.35
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
38 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
25 shares @ 70.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-17.40
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$2.00Jan 16, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$2.00Jan 16, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$2.00Jan 16, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?$4.05Jan 16, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?$4.05Jan 16, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$4.00Jan 16, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYDelcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$4.43Jan 16, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$3.00Jan 16, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$2.00Jan 16, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$2.00Jan 16, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$2.00Jan 15, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$2.00Jan 15, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$3.35Jan 15, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.00Jan 15, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.00Jan 15, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.00Jan 15, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.00Jan 15, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.00Jan 15, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.00Jan 15, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$3.00Jan 15, 05:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $3.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 05:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 13:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.