Attractive-Cohort
0x40b5e3e16a3fa23942f563b570aa74287466596d
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-295.59
Realised
$-1.58
Win rate
36%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
823 shares @ 40.4¢·now 76.5¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$629.21
$296.71
- NO
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?
455 shares @ 63.2¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$313.63
$26.10
- NO
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch?
100 shares @ 70.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$71.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?
594 shares @ 27.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$44.53
$-121.33
- NO
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch?
60 shares @ 72.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$41.40
$-1.80
- YES
Databricks IPO before 2027?
53 shares @ 62.9¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.85
$-27.58
- YES
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
37 shares @ 45.9¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.14
$-11.70
- NO
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?
10 shares @ 66.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.40
$-2.20
- YES
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.05
$-3.95
- YES
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?
1001 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.91
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$10.99Jul 31, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$10.06Jul 31, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$2.86Jul 31, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$5.16Jul 31, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$5.21Jul 31, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$13.02Jul 31, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$10.39Jul 31, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$19.16Jul 31, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$10.43Jul 31, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$5.67Jul 31, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$5.21Jul 31, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$0.00Jul 31, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$1.05Jul 31, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$7.55Jul 31, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$5.25Jul 31, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$5.11Jul 31, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$5.49Jul 31, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$5.10Jul 31, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$0.11Jul 31, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$0.95Jul 31, 19:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $12.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.