Elated-Sombrero
0x40c54e7f9fe32843a8174f927338e87d8fc85cba
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$7.2K
Total PnL
$16.2K
Realised
$16.4K
Win rate
71%
66 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- NO
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
484 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$478.44
$-1.21
- NO
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
425 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$414.00
$-1.30
- NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?
405 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$378.25
$-2.14
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
300 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$297.15
$-0.15
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
300 shares @ 97.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$291.00
$-2.70
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
300 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$286.50
$1.50
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
300 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$282.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
277 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$271.96
$-1.02
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$271.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1083 shares @ 23.4¢·now 23.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$251.88
$-1.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jun 14, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jun 14, 10:23 UTC
- MERGEWill SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$6.00Jun 14, 10:20 UTC
- MERGEChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$42.00Jun 14, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jun 14, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$5.81Jun 14, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jun 14, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$4.20Jun 14, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jun 14, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jun 14, 10:10 UTC
- MERGEWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$200.00Jun 14, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jun 14, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$20.97Jun 14, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$185.00Jun 14, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$8.88Jun 14, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$4.97Jun 14, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$4.97Jun 14, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$4.97Jun 14, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$5.19Jun 14, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$4.97Jun 14, 10:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $16.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 09:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 10:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 66 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.