Elated-Sombrero
0x40c54e7f9fe32843a8174f927338e87d8fc85cba
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
108
Open notional
$11.9K
Total PnL
$240.8K
Realised
$244.2K
Win rate
85%
104 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 108- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1164 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.1K
$-3.81
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8682 shares @ 12.4¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.0K
$-64.35
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4468 shares @ 21.2¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$864.60
$-83.77
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
642 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$574.19
$3.21
- NO
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
551 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$549.63
$1.20
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?
788 shares @ 64.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$500.15
$-9.96
- NO
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
471 shares @ 97.9¢·now 97.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$460.00
$-1.16
- NO
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
491 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$451.62
$-9.52
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
573 shares @ 84.8¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$432.89
$-53.42
- NO
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
413 shares @ 92.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$377.96
$-4.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 16:49 UTC
- MERGEWill Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?$29.96Jul 29, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?$1.20Jul 29, 16:47 UTC
- MERGEUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$8.09Jul 29, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$6.23Jul 29, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.02Jul 29, 16:24 UTC
- MERGEWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$5.20Jul 29, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jul 29, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$14.00Jul 29, 16:17 UTC
- MERGEWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$5.20Jul 29, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jul 29, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.03Jul 29, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$8.00Jul 29, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.03Jul 29, 16:08 UTC
- MERGEWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$5.20Jul 29, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.97Jul 29, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.88Jul 29, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.50Jul 29, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.20Jul 29, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.20Jul 29, 16:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 104 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
104 closed markets, 85% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $42.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 15:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 16:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 104 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.