Exemplary-Decisionmaking
0x40c73f1916fbd495f8117dc5755561ad778cb1e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$102.70
Total PnL
$-29.64
Realised
$14.96
Win rate
90%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
6 shares @ 67.3¢·now 54.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.50
$-0.83
- NO
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI?
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.27
$0.97
- YES
Will Linera launch a token by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.73
$0.07
- YES
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.73
$0.07
- YES
Will Manchester United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?
5 shares @ 39.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2027$2.58
$0.63
- NO
Will Gent qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
5 shares @ 26.9¢·now 44.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$2.20
$0.85
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit Washington in 2026?
10 shares @ 26.5¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.05
$-0.60
- YES
Will Cyril Xaba be the next mayor of eThekwini?
6 shares @ 12.8¢·now 33.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$1.87
$1.15
- YES
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.65
$0.60
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.57
$-0.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill DRX win more than 2.5 series during LCK 2026 Rounds 3-4?$0.03Aug 23, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?$0.40Aug 23, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before September?$0.25Aug 23, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Kittle have 1.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$1.00Aug 23, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joel Padilla Peña win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?$0.16Aug 23, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?$2.92Aug 23, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?$3.05Aug 23, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Sofiivka by October 31?$1.65Aug 23, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?$0.30Aug 23, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Sofiivka by October 31?$0.35Aug 23, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?$0.40Aug 23, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dr. Junior Feitosa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?$0.02Aug 23, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill TD Ierlan win the 2026 PLL Face-Off Player of the Year?$1.25Aug 23, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30?$0.09Aug 23, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYLindsay Clancy convicted of murder?$1.25Aug 23, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill donk be the EWC CS2 2026 MVP?$0.15Aug 23, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31?$0.77Aug 23, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Group A be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?$0.15Aug 23, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Cincinnati Reds win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?$1.55Aug 23, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill B8 Make a Roster Change before September?$1.45Aug 23, 16:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 23, 12:03 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 19:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.