Severe-Choice
0x40d21cdd577e31555bed34d2f960e42f2ebe30d6
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-916.13
Realised
$-13.38
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?
4000 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-22.96
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9?
3000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.19
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9?
3000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9?
2500 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-20.50
- NO
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?$2.88May 17, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?$3.86May 17, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?$0.06May 15, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?$2.09May 15, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?$1.95May 15, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?$2.40May 15, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?$0.88May 15, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?$3.00May 15, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?$2.91May 15, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?$2.92May 15, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$21.00May 15, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?$2.61May 15, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?$2.00May 14, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?$1.00May 14, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?$2.34May 14, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?$2.59May 14, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?$2.77May 14, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship?$3.04May 14, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?$2.79May 14, 11:35 UTC
- REDEEMInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina$20.00May 13, 22:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 09:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".