Treasured-Thermostat
0x413488b816fe4579b58958123a00441bee8af72d
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
52
Open notional
$103.65
Total PnL
$-218.73
Realised
$-0.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- YES
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
74 shares @ 27.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$73.58
$53.58
- NO
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
30 shares @ 83.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$30.07
$5.07
- YES
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?
8083 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-16.99
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?
1498 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?
667 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?
500 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?
426 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?
153 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US recession in 2025?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?$5.23May 16, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$10.08May 16, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$5.03May 16, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$5.16May 16, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$10.10May 16, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win Eurovision 2026?$1.05May 16, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$5.18May 16, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy win Eurovision 2026?$5.24May 16, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Poland win Eurovision 2026?$1.05May 16, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Poland win Eurovision 2026?$1.05May 16, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$5.18May 16, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$5.20May 16, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$6.22May 16, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Poland win Eurovision 2026?$10.50May 16, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Poland win Eurovision 2026?$5.25May 16, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UAE strike Iran by March 31?$140.42Mar 24, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$93.63Mar 24, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$82.31Mar 24, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$72.73Mar 24, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$107.00Mar 23, 13:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $50.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 19:09 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 22:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.