0x415a0bfb99593448fa96be4c88f7a42ce7e47acb
0x415a0bfb99593448fa96be4c88f7a42ce7e47acb
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$113.63
Total PnL
$-72.61
Realised
$-37.23
Win rate
46%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-17?
19 shares @ 45.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$18.67
$10.25
- NO
Will Udinese Calcio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?
16 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$16.07
$0.64
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 59.3¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.99
$-3.98
- YES
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-01-17?
10 shares @ 87.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$10.23
$1.32
- NO
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$9.78
$2.44
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 15.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.00
$7.50
- YES
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$6.00
$0.66
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 20?
5 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$5.00
$0.55
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 61.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.74
$1.28
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.48
$-1.45
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 18:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.