Entire-Frame
0x417b75f912bb43f7da0fd43a83a5cf486e5218d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.7K
Total PnL
$-648.68
Realised
$-267.45
Win rate
46%
124 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
743 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$742.70
$51.97
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
350 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$350.45
$7.18
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
251 shares @ 92.3¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$241.71
$10.07
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
202 shares @ 82.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$190.54
$24.18
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
179 shares @ 18.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$179.45
$146.81
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
166 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$166.48
$79.88
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
132 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$131.86
$0.89
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
126 shares @ 97.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$125.67
$3.36
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
137 shares @ 78.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$123.59
$16.32
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
122 shares @ 65.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$121.74
$41.78
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 124 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
124 closed markets, 46% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 124 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.