0x418170b775a81994c84b1275a18b854bc18f9b5f
0x418170b775a81994c84b1275a18b854bc18f9b5f
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$442.71
Total PnL
$47.84
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
266 shares @ 81.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$238.07
$22.61
- YES
Will Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?
110 shares @ 73.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$102.85
$22.55
- YES
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
53 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$52.50
$2.68
- YES
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
53 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$49.29
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Jennifer Flett win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?$81.17Jul 3, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$49.94Jul 2, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$49.39Jul 2, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$92.97Jul 2, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$8.13Jul 1, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$200.51Jun 30, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$66.60Jun 30, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLNo one announced as next James Bond?$41.82Jun 30, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$171.77Jun 30, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$87.42Jun 29, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?$85.86Jun 26, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$217.51Jun 26, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?$61.10Jun 26, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?$158.21Jun 23, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?$77.77Jun 20, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$150.85Jun 18, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$228.31Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$56.87Jun 15, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$56.98Jun 15, 19:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $75.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 08:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 14:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.