Dizzy-Transom
0x418486141e02b05ed1a669be9252f74c26dac863
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
169
Open notional
$327.65
Total PnL
$-184.49
Realised
$47.77
Win rate
77%
86 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 169- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.10
$2.30
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
20 shares @ 70.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.10
$2.00
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
20 shares @ 26.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.51
$10.31
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 10?
14 shares @ 77.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$13.60
$3.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 10?
20 shares @ 76.5¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$13.01
$-2.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?
24 shares @ 45.7¢·now 53.4¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$12.66
$1.84
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
11 shares @ 79.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.17
$2.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 10?
11 shares @ 70.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$10.86
$3.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 9?
10 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$9.99
$3.29
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 10?
10 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$9.99
$1.89
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10?$0.16Jul 10, 05:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10?$2.80Jul 10, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 10?$4.90Jul 10, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on July 10?$2.00Jul 10, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?$4.37Jul 10, 04:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 9?$3.32Jul 10, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 10?$0.44Jul 10, 04:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 10?$3.02Jul 10, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 10?$6.50Jul 10, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 10?$0.51Jul 10, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?$8.30Jul 10, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 10?$3.44Jul 10, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 10?$1.10Jul 10, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?$3.79Jul 10, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?$0.61Jul 10, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 10?$0.12Jul 10, 04:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?$2.48Jul 10, 04:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?$0.68Jul 10, 04:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?$4.82Jul 10, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?$4.90Jul 10, 04:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
79/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
77% win rate over 86 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
86 closed markets, 77% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 03:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 05:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 86 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.